DaChiFan: So let's start with this question: What is your March Madness theory? How do you go about picking teams?
SagiNasty: I try to watch every game possible, from the Maui Invitational down to all the conference tournaments. Even the Small College ones. Even the NAIA tournement.
I feel this gives me a good foundation from which to base my picks on...
DaChiFan: We have a guru here. A budding young Doug Gottlieb.
Honestly, what's your theory?
SagiNasty: Well, I try the read as many experts picks on the main sites, like SI, ESPN, etc.
I get a consensus of the picks, a feeling if you will, then based on those I make alterations as I see fit.For example, I think this is the kind of year that the Big Ten does some work in the tourney. I feel this not only because I am a Spartan fan, but because the Big Ten is heavy on the defense this year. The Kind of defense that other teams hate playing.
DaChiFan: I get your strategy. I think it makes sense except for the fact that none of these experts on ESPN, et. al. no what the hell they are talking about. They all have these hidden biases (read ACC). But's a fair strategy. I tried it last year, but it didn't really work since it was the first year (in a while I think ) that all #1 seeds made it. So this year, I'm trying something new. I'm just going with my gut intuition. Sort of like the theory behind that Malcolm Gladwell book "Blink"; to just go with your first thought. The only problem is that I am not an expert and this is bound to fail.
SagiNasty: Well, that is because you are a boob. And you went to Indiana, weened on Bobby Knight basketball.
DaChiFan: Please don't lump me with that pile of shit. Anyway, I've also considered looking at Vegas odds for all the first round games and odds of teams making the Final Four, but that doesn't give you too much info.
SagiNasty: I have read that Vegas does the best job at picking these games.
DaChiFan: Anyway, let's examine your Big-Ten theory. I like it except, you can't tell which Big Ten will make it. They all play good defense, but are just as likely to lose in the 2nd round as they are of going to the final four. Who can you rely on? Your Spartans?
SagiNasty: You usually can rely on the Spartans for a deep run every couple years, so I tend to err on the side of bias there and always pick the spartans to go deep. As for picking the rest of the Big Ten, it really is a gut feeling based on matchups and completely random factors. There is no logical rhyme or reason for who I pick from the Big Ten.
DaChiFan: I think you are getting to the big issue here. It's impossible, besides some random gut feeling, to pick the NCAA tourney. For the most part, it's just luck. That's why the 67 year old office secretary ends up wining these things every year.
Well, let's look at the Bracket- With the Midwest region, we both have Mich. State going to the final four. Which basically means they are losing in 2nd round.
SagiNasty: My bracket would really not like that to happen. By the way, are we putting anything on this little mano-a-mano bracket battle royal?
DaChiFan: oh yeah. Definitely. What's the wager. I propose lunch at some nice place.
SagiNasty: Do you not still owe me lunch at a certain meat-centric restaurant on the near north side of Chicago? Based on a certain Pistons-Bulls bet a couple years ago?
DaChiFan: Uhhhhhh. Yeah, let's forget that ever happened. If I win, we just go out to Fogo and split the tab. If you win, I actually pick up the tab this time.
SagiNasty: Yes, that sounds lovely. I agree. What are your thoughts on the rest of the backside of the Midwest bracket?
DaChiFan: I can't get with the whole Louisville phenomenon. Just can't do it. I know they won the Big East, but they had the advantage of the easier schedule. Also, I can't stand Kansas and Bill Self. So it's really Wake Forest to me. I'm a closet ACC fan, so I like their chances to get to the elite 8.
SagiNasty: I agree on Louisville. They split with UConn and Pitt, and both games were at Lousiville. I do like Arizona, mostly because teams like Utah need a stud to advance (Van Horn, Andre Miller) and because I have a co-worker who roots for the Wildcats. Although their program is in disarray, I think they have a game in them against the Utes. I also like OSU because of the spanking they delivered to MSU Saturday and who the hell is Siena and why are they an 9?
DaChiFan: I thought you watched the Maui Invitational? You would have noticed Siena's prowess. Again, I think we both have a Big Ten bias and an emphasis on the defense factor. No one is prepared for the 38-31 score line that only a Big-Ten team could deliver.
Alright, let's go on to the West bracket. We both have Uconn advancing. Another sign that our brackets are terrible. I love Hakim Thabeet from UConn. He provides them with that strong NBA post presence that no one else in the tourney has. But, is it enough for them? I really don't know. People seem to love Memphis though. Thoughts?
SagiNasty: I think that Memphis plays NO ONE in their conference. I have no faith that they will dominate the way the did last year with your boy Rose. I think they go out to a good Missu team in the 16s. I also heard that Marquette's lead scorer is out, thus the Utah State pick, which goes against everything I said earlier about Utah. I have Cal beating Maryland, but that is based on nothing except I think more people picked Cal than Maryland.
DaChiFan: I just looked up Conference USA and their teams. Memphis plays against the following teams: Rice, UAB, East Carolina, UCF, Tulsa, UTEP, Houston, Tulane, and Marshall. I think Indiana might have won that conference. So like you, I don't have the confidence in Memphis. I do worry about UConn. I could see a team like Purdue beating them. Or a Missouri going all the way.
SagiNasty: I think Purdue has a good team. I am not that huge a fan of Thabeet on UConn, he has a Okafor type game. But UConn almost always has superior type talent, so unless someone comes inspired against them, I think that UConn wins that game.
SagiNasty: By the way, how bad does that Okafor vs. Howard draft talk from a couple years ago look now? I know that I thought Okefor was the better choice at the time, but Howard is a freaking beast. I know nothing.
DaChiFan: Without a doubt. I wouldn't be surprised if Okafor played in the NBDL in a couple of years. Well let's move on to the South bracket, where we actually have some differences. But first, how much do you hate that ugly white dude on Syracuse-Erik Devendorf. Just google ugly white Syracuse on google and his name will appear.
SagiNasty: Hold on, let me take a look. That is not what comes up in a google search.
DaChiFan: it was a joke. google his name.
SagiNasty: yikes.
DaChiFan: Not just his looks, but his play. He is always yelling, screaming and talking trash. He's an even uglier version of Youkim Noah.
SagiNasty: I have long held the belief that the Chicago Bulls, circa 08-09 have one of the ugliest teams ever photographed.
DaChiFan: Sorry, I even brought that up. The Pistons are just beautiful. Like that Rat face Rip Hamilton. P.S. Bulls are going to beat the Celtics thanks to Salmons. Where did that guy come from?
SagiNasty: Apparently the U. Not a bad player, really.
DaChiFan: Alright, South Bracket. You have Oklahoma and I have NC. Oklahoma is one of the worst picks of the tournament. Think Kansas State with Michael Beasley, but maybe 5% better. I think K. State lost in the first round last year. (a) You can't cheer a team from Oklahoma, (b) again it's Oklahoma, and (c) the Big 12 is not that good. Kansas should have lost that game to Memphis last year. I think Oklahoma and that conference are overrated.
SagiNasty: I disagree. I like the way that Blake Griffin plays. I think that Oklahoma is going to make up for its football team's thrashing at the hands of Tebow. Who is going to go to a smart NFL team and dom-in-ate. I know I am in the minority on this. I think that Syracuse, which is the sweetheart pick because of their 6 OT game against UConn, is in danger of being upset from playing so much ball the last couple weeks. If they played anybody decent in their first two games- This is where you might find an unexpected upset, but I am going with Leatherface and the rest of the Cuse to the round of 16. I also can not pick NC coming out of this bracket, even thought they face no one on their side of it. Thus, the Oklahoma pick.
DaChiFan: I completely agree with the Syracuse point. Syracuse seems to do this every other year. You don't hear about them until the Big East Tourney. They are essentially playing at home in Madison Square Garden in front of their fans, go on a crazy run in Big-East Tourney, and then everyone gets on their bandwagon for the NCAA Tourney. Except that they usually lose in the 1st round. Hence, my pick predicted theylose to Arizona St (who I have never in my life seen play basketball). Again, I don't see Oklahoma. They have been playing their worst basketball towards the end of the season b/c of Griffin's injury. It's an easy one here. NC all the way. Oh and by the way, Tebow sucks in the NFL.
SagiNasty: Hate on Tebow all you want, but prepared to be wrong my friend. I took the Western Kentucky 5-12 upset against the Illini not because WKU is such a good team, but b/c Illinois senior leader what’s-his-name is out. And because I cannot bring myself to root for Illinois basketball. You also made this pick. I am guessing it is based on the same sound logic as mine.
DaChiFan: 100% same logic. Not feeling Illinois.
No idea about Gonzaga, but I have them going to sweet 16, solely on their overrated name.
DaChiFan: Give me the East breakdown. We essentially have the exact same bracket absent Xavier in the Sweet 16. I gave this to Pittsburgh, only because there is one else to root for in this bracket. And I'm not high on this Duke team - too soft down low. I don't understand why Coach K keeps on fielding these soft teams with no inside presence. It's not working for him. It will get you some wins in the ACC, but once it's tournament time you need that defense.
SagiNasty: "Too soft down low" is also a good description of your body type, but you are right, this fits for Duke too. I like Minnesota over Clemson for no other reason than big ten bias. UCLA is an easy pick I think, which is why they will lose in the first round. I think Villanova runs over the backside of this East bracket and fits Pitt for the trip to Detroit (hooray...). I also think that Wisconsin gives basketball powerhouse FSU a Bo Ryan special and upsets the seminoles in a classic 42-37 game.
DaChiFan: Well done. Only a girl’s high school team is prepared for the 42-37 score line that Wisconsin is likely to serve to FSU. I only chose FSU because I felt like I needed a random team to make it to the Sweet 16. FSU fits the bill. But they did make it to the ACC championship game (I think). You have Pittsburgh winning it all. You do realize that this is college basketball and not the NFL, right? Don't they have a history of not getting past the sweet 16?
SagiNasty: This is Pitts year, I can feel it. I have no real basis for this decision other than everybody seems to be real high on them.
DaChiFan: “Everyone being really high on them” is a recipe for an early round loss. But, my reasoning for NC to win it all is no better. I just can't think of any other team to win it. They seem to have the easiest path to the Final Four. So it's more of a risk adverse thing. I figure they will get to the Final 4, so they have at least a 25% chance of winning it all. I noticed that you have Michigan State in the title game. I can see the home team bias taking you to the Final 4, but past that, you are letting your emotions get in the way. They don't have what it takes to win it all. Whose their go to guy?
SagiNasty: I am glad that you asked. Kalin Lucas was Big Ten Player of the year. Travis Walton was Big Team Defensive Player of the Year. They are going to reek havoc on other teams backcourts. They have the depth up front with Suton and Morgan, along with their deep bench, to withstand the size that a UConn or any other team will throw at them. The OSU game should not be determinative because 1) Izzo could give two shits about the Big Ten Tourney 2) MSU could not hit an outside shot if their lives depended on it that game, and 3) OSU was playing crazy inspired defense. Lucas is their go-to player.
DaChiFan: Sorry, I don't buy it. The Big-Ten had a deep conference this year, but no elite teams. Michigan State may get to the Final Four, but that's it.
Alright, it's getting late. Any final thoughts? Are we taking Friday off to catch the games?
SagiNasty: hmm....
DaChiFan: Just like good old times?
SagiNasty: That would be lovely, but alas life has caught up with me this year and the profession demands my time. Thank the Lord for webstreaming.
DaChiFan: I think I will be at home or at a pub watching the games. There is no better feeling than not working AND watching the opening round.
SagiNasty: I hate you.
DaChiFan: Alright.... I can taste the Fogo now.
SagiNasty: And I can envision the smile on my face when you are paying for my bill sucka.
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